Navin Patnaik- next Indian Prime Minister

• • Andhra Pradesh (42)- 5
  • 2.2 Arunachal Pradesh (2)-0
  • 2.3 Assam (14)- 0
  • 2.4 Bihar (40)- 20
  • 2.5 Chhattisgarh (11)- 7- 2
  • 2.6 Goa (2)- 2
  • 2.7 Gujarat (26)- 18
  • 2.8 Haryana (10)- 5 3
  • 2.9 Himachal Pradesh (4)-2 1
  • 2.10 Jammu and Kashmir (6)- 1
  • 2.11 Jharkhand (14)- 9
  • 2.12 Karnataka (28)- 14 4
  • 2.13 Kerala (20)- 0
  • 2.14 Madhya Pradesh (29)- 21
  • 2.15 Maharashtra (48)- 26 4
  • 2.16 Manipur (2)- 0
  • 2.17 Meghalaya (2)- 0
  • 2.18 Mizoram (1)- 0
  • 2.19 Nagaland (1)- 0
  • 2.20 Odisha (21)- 5
  • 2.21 Punjab (13)- 8 2
  • 2.22 Rajasthan (25)- 18
  • 2.23 Sikkim (1)- 0
  • 2.24 Tamil Nadu (39)- 5
  • 2.25 Tripura (2)- 0
  • 2.26 Uttar Pradesh(80)- 40 4
  • 2.27 Uttarakhand (5)- 5 1
  • 2.28 West Bengal (42)- 0
• 3 Constituencies by Union Territory
  • 3.1 Andaman and Nicobar Islands (1)- 0
  • 3.2 Chandigarh (1)-0
  • 3.3 Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1)-1
  • 3.4 Daman and Diu (1)1
  • 3.5 Lakshadweep (1)-0
  • 3.6 NCT of Delhi (7)-3 4
  • 3.7 Puducherry (1) -0
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  This prediction is only focussed on NDA, as per my prediction NDA is getting 235 seats. I have been  pretty generous in few states (UP 40) and I am also ready to give another 10 seats to NDA which will take then to 245. This number is considering the fact that Modi wave is equally strong the surface as it is in main stream media (MSM).Based on this projection I am going to suggest 3 scenarios and readers can agree or disagee with me.

Scenario 1:  NDA gets 235 of which BJP gets 180 plus. The support will come from TDP and fringe parties. This will see Modi as 14th Prime Minister of India. I really doubt that this is going to happen and I have my reasons for those. Media and opinion polls were waywardly wrong in 2004 and 2009 as well and they are again making the same mistake. Everyone is ignoring the AAP effect, even though AAP is not going to be a major force but the party has already become the third largest national party in such a short span, hence it will be no surprise if Delhi gets repeated at national level.Thidly, regional satraps will be tough to be blown just by the Modi wave.

Scenario 2: NDA gets 200-220 and BJP gets around 160. In this scenario, NDA will form the govt but they might need Jaya, Sushma or Maya and in that case there will be a strong objection to Modi and Shivraj's stocks will rise rapidly. In my opinion, this is more likely to happen as compared to the first one.

Scenario 3: NDA gets below 200 and BJP below 160. Most observers will call me insane to predict such a scenario but this could happen if there is a strong polarisation of votes because of Modi. This will  rule out Modi completely and a third front govt will come into picture. In that situation, a common consensus candidate like Gujral or Dev Gowda will come into picture from oblivion. Navin Patnaik is still  expected to do very well in Odisha. Media doesn't talk much about him at the moment and even Kejri doens't know a lot about him.Patnaik is expected to win a strong 4th term in Odisha which is a no mean feat and will emerge as a strong contender post elections.

In the end, I will just say that these are just predictions and I could go completely wrong as well but your views are welcomed. Please share your views supported by logic and rational. On a very conservative estimate I can't see AAP winning beyond 20 seats for LS 2014.